Soccer Betting

Friday Fixture

2009-11-06T17:24:00.002Z

After a disappointing Saturday - just one 5-timer up, we move to a single Win bet on Friday night - Derby to beat coventry (currently 2.14 on Betfair)

Saturday Selections

2009-10-30T23:25:00.000Z

For Saturday we are going to make some selections for the fixed-odds coupons.

Chelsea
Livingstone
Dagenham & Redbridge
Hereford
Middlesbrough
West Brom
Ipswich

Mixing these in 5/6/7 timers should show a profit

Disaster

2009-10-30T09:00:00.000Z

If you're going to get it wrong, get it wrong big-style. I'm not even sure what the final score of the Young Boys game was (too depressed), I gave up at 5-0. Any excuses? Well, Bellinzona did have a player sent off after 12 minutes, which might have had a minor efffect, but I hold my hands up to a bad piece of analysis
Profit/Loss = -5pts

Not an awful better over in Brazil, with a winning bet and a loser.
Profit/Loss = -0.43pts

Still, tomorrow is another day.

Thusday's Selections

2009-10-29T00:54:00.000Z

We go to Switzerland (not literally as the cost of living is prohibitive) for our first bet for Thursday. Young Boys (I still can't get my head round why anyone would give such a strange name to a football team) are away at AC Bellinzona. Young Boys have won 5 out of 7 away games this season and lost 2 (no draws, which is unusual). They've scored at nearly 3 goals a game average, but conceded almost 2 goals a game. Bellinzona score at 2 goals a game and concede at 1.5

All these factors lead me to the following bet: Lay 4pts Young Boys @1.71; and Back 1pt the Draw @ 4.1 (I would take the over 2.5 goals, but the price is a ridiculous 1.5).

For our next two bets we travel across the world to the playground of Brazil. Palmeiras v Goias is top vs 7th, but Palmeiras are less than impressive at home and Goias have a less than 50% loss record on the road. So we go for 2pts Lay Palmeiras at 1.69

The last bet is Sport Recife (second from bottom) v Coritiba. Sport Recife leak goals like a leaky goal machine and have a less than 50% win record at home, so their price of 1.84 to Lay looks slightly over-generous for 1pt.

Wednesday Carling Cup

2009-10-28T12:48:00.000Z

With the odds being restricted on both 12X markets and the over/under 2.5 goals market (my favourite betting mediums), there isn't a lot going on today (1.6 for Chelsea/Man City to win is a possibility for the must-have a bet brigade, but not for me). I've also scoured the continental soccer markets, but again nothing. As I believe in holding on to what we already have there is no action tonight, but I may have something lined up for tomorrow with at least a possibility in a foreign Cup match to try and build on the excellent return in the Copa del Rey yesterday.

A Winning Start

2009-10-27T23:05:00.000Z

Well not a bad night's work. Man Utd failed to build on a worrying early goal and even if you hadn't taken my advice to trade out the game finished 0-2, so the under 2.5 goal bet Won (although trading out was the way to go).
Profit/Loss = +0.2pts

Tottenham beat Everton as predicted, although to be fair it was harder than I expected.
Profit/Loss = +1.56pts

Portsmouth managed the over 2.5 goal bet all by themselves, which was just as well as Stoke went back to their usual away form .
Profit/Loss = +1.18pts

The Real surprise was (you guessed it) Real. As I highlighted in my column on the Copa del Rey, Laying Real Madrid was the ace bet, but even in my wildest dreams I didn't expect them to go down quite so easily. 4-0 means they have left themselves a mountain to climb in the 2nd leg, and there may be another betting opportunity coming up.
Profit/Loss = +4pts

So, 4 bets and 4 winners for a total profit of 6.6pts after 5% commission. Life isn't always this easy, and there will always be losses to come, but the positive aspect is that it hasn't cost you anything, and never will

Carling Cup

2009-10-27T13:09:00.000Z

Let's see if there's any chance of a bet tonight in the Carling Cup. As always I'll be trying to find the real 'value' and perhaps going down a slightly unexpected route in some cases.

There is a word of caution here as the Carling Cup is seen by most top-flight managers as a way of introducing fringe players, so betting caution is always advised.

Barnsley v Man Utd – nothing of note as far as match betting goes, but the over/under 2.5 goals is of interest. Typically everyone expects Man Utd to score lots against lower teams, but this is often not the case, and quite often they will only score later on in the match. 2.18 on Betfair for under 2.5 goals makes appeal, and as this is an in-play market there will be an opportunity (hopefully) to trade out. So that's 1 point Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.18 and a Lay in-play @ 1.97 (to provide a small profit against a zero loss).
Tottenham v Everton – although I'm normally looking for the unexpected, there is a situation here that I believe is too good to miss. Spurs are currently trading @ 1.78 against an Everton team that is likely to be made up of the walking wounded and real fringe players. The Spurs also have a little bit of pride to restore and given Harry's desire not to lose I fully expect them to roll over Everton in a big way. Tottenham 2 points Back in Match Odds @ 1.78. Interestingly, if you look at the over/under 2.5 goals market for this then it is only slightly higher odds for there to be over 2.5 goals, so the expectation is for lots of goals, which gives me added confidence for a Spurs victory.
Portsmouth v Stoke – perhaps a strange match to choose (especially given the market I'm going for), but there are valid reasons. Portsmouth are playing better than their League position suggests, but they have problems scoring. Stoke on the hand are definitely performing beyond expectations; highlighted by a victory at White Hart Lane on Saturday. All common sense tells us this should be a low scoring game, but I think take away the pressure of being bottom of the League and Portsmouth could start to convert some of the numerous chances they have made in recent matches. Stoke also are capable of scoring, especially if David James has one of his 'moments' and the over 2.5 goals @ 2.18 looks like a bit of a possibility for 1 point.

Best of luck and I will update later.

Copa del Rey (Spanish Cup)

2009-10-27T11:42:00.000Z

I've just been working through the mid-week Carling Cup matches and it set me thinking about 'Cup' matches as opposed to 'League' matches, and how the difference might be exploited.

I'll post a separate Carling Cup page shortly, but in the meantime I was struck by the prices of a Spanish Cup match (Copa del Rey).

Alcorcon are playing at home to Real Madrid tonight (27th October). Now Alcorcon are in the 2nd Division of Spanish football and Real Madrid are...well everyone knows who they are.

What sort of price would you expect for a Real Madrid victory? I would think you should be looking at 1.2 to 1.3, something in that area. On Betfair they are currently trading at 1.49 to Back and 1.5 to Lay. Everything we all assume should tell us that if we believe Real Madrid's price to be 1.3 maximum (which I would maintain is a fair reflection on the relevant standings of the teams) then we should all lump on at the 'value' odds of 1.49.

Let's (for a moment) look a little bit deeper. We need to consider why everyone isn't backing them at this standout price? After all, Betfair is a free market economy. Just to put this into context, they are priced up at around the same price that Spurs were to beat Stoke on Saturday, and Man City were to beat Fulham on Sunday (and these are teams in the same league). Therefore 1.49 looks like a gift, and you know what they say; never look a gift horse in the mouth.

Because Betfair is a free market, then there is obvious resistance to Real Madrid's chances, and we need to see if there are valid reasons for this.

The Copa del Rey matches are played over two legs. Real Madrid would be expected to win at home against such lowly opposition, therefore they might not feel the need to go all-out to impress in the away leg.

Conversely, Alcorcon could see this as a way of achieving a modicum of glory (think FA Cup giant killers). They may not have any great expectation of knocking Real Madrid out over two legs, but a home draw would be a 'good' result for them.

This really defines the sort of bets I am trying to make. Going against the expected when there are valid reasons that the 'unthinkable' might actually happen.

My bet for this would be to Lay Real Madrid at 1.5, but I would want to keep liability reasonably low at 2 points. If you bet in £5 units this would mean a £20 Lay (4 points) @ 1.5 for a £10 liability.

It may appear speculative and Real Madrid may romp home, but by finding opportunities like this on a regular basis we are looking to make long-term profits.

Weekend Results and a Lesson Learned

2009-10-27T10:42:00.000Z

Results - Weekend of the 24th October

What a crazy weekend for backers in the EPL, and an indication that what I wrote in my introduction was true, with most nailed-on selections going the way of English owners of Premier League clubs – out of the door. Even when matches looked won teams managed to throw them away, and even I had one of those moments that affect all gamblers – was I pleased to make that decision. I will explain, because it's a valuable lesson.

Having dropped a few quid on Tottenham on the Saturday, I decided that the best response would be to take Manchester City to kick Fulham into touch. I'd watched Fulham play Hull City on the previous Monday and to be honest I wouldn't give them a chance of scoring against a half-way decent side. So armed with the certainty that only comes from years of losing bets (gamblers are peculiar animals) I plunged on the light blues.

I got distracted doing jobs around the house (building a plastic Argos shed – from pieces that were never designed to fit together), and flicked onto the scores to find that Man City were leading 1-0. As I don't like losing money I went onto Betfair to see about trading out and saw the lay price had gone to 1.03 (what I didn't know was that between me checking the score and getting to my computer Man City had scored a second – although I thought they must have done; given the price).

This then was my position. I had £300 on Man City to return me a profit of around £148; they were leading 2-0 so the money was safe. That's when I had my blinding moment of inspiration. Instead of letting the bet ride I took the trade at 1.03 (cost me a tenner I thought, but at least my money's safe).

So, back to building the shed (it's nearly done now – honest, just a few more screws). Later that night went to check my Betfair account to find that they hadn't paid me my winnings. Usual cursing about inefficiency until I decided to actually check the scores. Fulham had equalised!!! My bet had lost (although I had saved my dosh). Moral of this story. Take a profit. For the sake of £10 (as I thought) I'd saved myself £300.
Really, that was the story of the weekend! Teams not doing as expected. With, I have to say, the exception of Wigan who did exactly as I expected (one of the few that did).

Talk again soon, with some tips coming for football around the world.

Introduction

2009-10-27T10:37:00.000Z

It's become clear over the last few years that betting on Soccer – especially on the Exchanges such as Betfair or Betdaq is big business. Unfortunately, when big business moves in chances for the little man move out in double quick time.

It should be easy, right? Team A who are top of the League are playing Team B who are languishing in last place. Easy money to be made here. So you invest your £10, £100, £1,000 whatever you are comfortable with and wait a couple of hours to pick up an additional £1.50, £15, £150. The results come in. Shock result! Team B holds on for a battling point. Team A do all the attacking, they hit the post seventeen times, a goal-bound ball is deflected by a beach-ball, and Team B's goalkeeper is in inspired form. Result: not just dropped points for the League leaders but dropped money for the poor punter.

OK! I'm not here to tell you how to make a fortune from gambling on Soccer (or football as it used to be known). If I could do that I would be rich and too busy sunning myself to be writing Blogs. What I will try and do is point out some possibilities that could buck the trend of obvious bets.

I will also be reviewing some of the action from the English Leagues, hopefully to give you a laugh along the way. This Blog has grown from an internal e-mail I used to send out across work (started out as a semi-personal one to friends but rather grew). I hope you enjoy, and you never know, I might even help save you a bit of money.

If you come back regularly you will be sure of getting the insight on upcoming matches. You invest your money at your own risk.