Friday Fixture

After a disappointing Saturday - just one 5-timer up, we move to a single Win bet on Friday night - Derby to beat coventry (currently 2.14 on Betfair)

Saturday Selections

For Saturday we are going to make some selections for the fixed-odds coupons.

Chelsea
Livingstone
Dagenham & Redbridge
Hereford
Middlesbrough
West Brom
Ipswich

Mixing these in 5/6/7 timers should show a profit

Disaster

If you're going to get it wrong, get it wrong big-style. I'm not even sure what the final score of the Young Boys game was (too depressed), I gave up at 5-0. Any excuses? Well, Bellinzona did have a player sent off after 12 minutes, which might have had a minor efffect, but I hold my hands up to a bad piece of analysis
Profit/Loss = -5pts

Not an awful better over in Brazil, with a winning bet and a loser.
Profit/Loss = -0.43pts

Still, tomorrow is another day.

Thusday's Selections

We go to Switzerland (not literally as the cost of living is prohibitive) for our first bet for Thursday. Young Boys (I still can't get my head round why anyone would give such a strange name to a football team) are away at AC Bellinzona. Young Boys have won 5 out of 7 away games this season and lost 2 (no draws, which is unusual). They've scored at nearly 3 goals a game average, but conceded almost 2 goals a game. Bellinzona score at 2 goals a game and concede at 1.5

All these factors lead me to the following bet: Lay 4pts Young Boys @1.71; and Back 1pt the Draw @ 4.1 (I would take the over 2.5 goals, but the price is a ridiculous 1.5).

For our next two bets we travel across the world to the playground of Brazil. Palmeiras v Goias is top vs 7th, but Palmeiras are less than impressive at home and Goias have a less than 50% loss record on the road. So we go for 2pts Lay Palmeiras at 1.69

The last bet is Sport Recife (second from bottom) v Coritiba. Sport Recife leak goals like a leaky goal machine and have a less than 50% win record at home, so their price of 1.84 to Lay looks slightly over-generous for 1pt.

Wednesday Carling Cup

With the odds being restricted on both 12X markets and the over/under 2.5 goals market (my favourite betting mediums), there isn't a lot going on today (1.6 for Chelsea/Man City to win is a possibility for the must-have a bet brigade, but not for me). I've also scoured the continental soccer markets, but again nothing. As I believe in holding on to what we already have there is no action tonight, but I may have something lined up for tomorrow with at least a possibility in a foreign Cup match to try and build on the excellent return in the Copa del Rey yesterday.

A Winning Start

Well not a bad night's work. Man Utd failed to build on a worrying early goal and even if you hadn't taken my advice to trade out the game finished 0-2, so the under 2.5 goal bet Won (although trading out was the way to go).
Profit/Loss = +0.2pts

Tottenham beat Everton as predicted, although to be fair it was harder than I expected.
Profit/Loss = +1.56pts

Portsmouth managed the over 2.5 goal bet all by themselves, which was just as well as Stoke went back to their usual away form .
Profit/Loss = +1.18pts

The Real surprise was (you guessed it) Real. As I highlighted in my column on the Copa del Rey, Laying Real Madrid was the ace bet, but even in my wildest dreams I didn't expect them to go down quite so easily. 4-0 means they have left themselves a mountain to climb in the 2nd leg, and there may be another betting opportunity coming up.
Profit/Loss = +4pts

So, 4 bets and 4 winners for a total profit of 6.6pts after 5% commission. Life isn't always this easy, and there will always be losses to come, but the positive aspect is that it hasn't cost you anything, and never will

Carling Cup

Let's see if there's any chance of a bet tonight in the Carling Cup. As always I'll be trying to find the real 'value' and perhaps going down a slightly unexpected route in some cases.


There is a word of caution here as the Carling Cup is seen by most top-flight managers as a way of introducing fringe players, so betting caution is always advised.

Barnsley v Man Utd – nothing of note as far as match betting goes, but the over/under 2.5 goals is of interest. Typically everyone expects Man Utd to score lots against lower teams, but this is often not the case, and quite often they will only score later on in the match. 2.18 on Betfair for under 2.5 goals makes appeal, and as this is an in-play market there will be an opportunity (hopefully) to trade out. So that's 1 point Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.18 and a Lay in-play @ 1.97 (to provide a small profit against a zero loss).
Tottenham v Everton – although I'm normally looking for the unexpected, there is a situation here that I believe is too good to miss. Spurs are currently trading @ 1.78 against an Everton team that is likely to be made up of the walking wounded and real fringe players. The Spurs also have a little bit of pride to restore and given Harry's desire not to lose I fully expect them to roll over Everton in a big way. Tottenham 2 points Back in Match Odds @ 1.78. Interestingly, if you look at the over/under 2.5 goals market for this then it is only slightly higher odds for there to be over 2.5 goals, so the expectation is for lots of goals, which gives me added confidence for a Spurs victory.
Portsmouth v Stoke – perhaps a strange match to choose (especially given the market I'm going for), but there are valid reasons. Portsmouth are playing better than their League position suggests, but they have problems scoring. Stoke on the hand are definitely performing beyond expectations; highlighted by a victory at White Hart Lane on Saturday. All common sense tells us this should be a low scoring game, but I think take away the pressure of being bottom of the League and Portsmouth could start to convert some of the numerous chances they have made in recent matches. Stoke also are capable of scoring, especially if David James has one of his 'moments' and the over 2.5 goals @ 2.18 looks like a bit of a possibility for 1 point.

Best of luck and I will update later.